Tuur Demeester
@TuurDemeester
A
82.4 / 100
Last researched 20 Jul 2026, 04:47 UTC
An early Bitcoin pioneer whose fundamental macroeconomic thesis proved highly accurate for long-term spot accumulation. However, his strict Bitcoin-only ideology has historically led to disastrous short positions against altcoins like Ethereum, and he suffers from late-cycle timing blind spots by misdiagnosing market peaks as mid-cycle pauses.
Calls found
12
Resolved calls
12
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Calls (12)
Strong Buy / Long-term investment recommendation to his newsletter subscribers when BTC was trading around $5.
Bitcoin surged from $5 to peaks well over $100,000 in subsequent years, representing a massive long-term gain.
Strong Buy / Long-term investment recommendation when BTC was valued at ~$100, declaring it the greatest investment opportunity of our day.
Bitcoin breached $1,000 in November 2013, yielding a 10x return within months.
Advised clients to maintain a small, diversified allocation of capital in non-Bitcoin alternative cryptocurrencies.
Altcoins, specifically Ethereum, experienced an explosive multi-thousand-percent bull run during the 2017 cycle.
Direct Short on Ethereum and Long on Bitcoin when ETH was trading at ~$13.06 and BTC was at ~$613.
Profitable as a short-term trade as ETH dropped to $7 and BTC rose to $757, but highly incorrect long-term as ETH skyrocketed over 10,000% to $1,400 by 2018.
Bearish outlook stating that despite a 6-month cool-off, Bitcoin faced further downside risk and the market should not expect new highs in 2018.
Bitcoin did not see new highs in 2018, consolidating downward to a cyclical bottom of ~$3,100 in December 2018.
Predicted that the next major cyclical run would carry Bitcoin to a peak between $50,000 and $100,000.
Bitcoin peaked at approximately $69,000 in November 2021, directly inside his predicted target range.
Strongly bullish conviction of another massive rally that would 'set our hair on fire' while trading around $9,000-$9,500.
Bitcoin exploded post-halving, breaking past $20,000 to reach over $64,000 by April 2021.
Pushed back against hyper-bullish $1,000,000 by 2028 models, warning that Mr. Market is destined to break beautiful models.
Bitcoin indeed experienced highly volatile cycles and a bear market in 2026, validating his call to temper linear $1 million expectations.
Predicted a peak of $200,000 to $600,000 by 2026, while warning users to be careful with leverage and debt.
Bitcoin experienced a major bull run but peaked in October 2025 at $126,198, failing to meet his minimum target of $200,000.
Predicted a post-halving 20% drawdown fitting the bull's pattern, pointing to $60,000 as a strong logical bottom.
Bitcoin consolidated post-halving and successfully defended the $60,000 - $64,000 support floor before continuing upward.
Warned that the ETH/BTC pair, trading at 0.043 BTC, was on track to collapse to a target of 0.03 BTC.
The ETH/BTC pair broke key levels and traded in the 0.03 range in September 2024.
Co-published a report claiming 'mid-cycle strength' with a path toward a 4-10x value appreciation targeting prices north of $500,000.
This was a major cycle timing failure; the market peaked just two months later at $126,198 before crashing 50% into a bear market in 2026.
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