Bitcoin · power law · buying the floor

What if you'd
bought the floor?

Every time Bitcoin fell to its power-law floor was, in hindsight, a gift. Drag the line across the full price history. Whenever the price sat within a set band of the floor (5% by default, adjustable), this shows the annualised return you'd have earned holding from there to today's live price.

01 / THE TIME MACHINE

Drag to any floor-touch

Currency

Floor band (±%)

connecting… Live BTC spot, auto-refreshes every 60s.

power-law floor weekly low within 5% of floor (a "floor-touch")

About the slider. It is approximate, not deadly accurate. A browser scales this long, compressed chart down to your screen, so the line lands on a date within a week or two rather than one exact day. That does not change the conclusion. Sweep it slowly across the green floor zones and the CAGR stays high right across the whole area. The point is not that you had to nail a single perfect bottom. It is that accumulating, or dollar-cost-averaging, anywhere near the floor has historically produced excellent compound returns.

02 / THE BACKTEST

What if you'd bought every dip to the floor?

Instead of one perfect buy, run the rule mechanically: invest a fixed amount every week the weekly low sits within the band of the floor, from your chosen start year, and hold every coin to today's live price. The band is the same ±% you set above.

Invest per buy

Start from

band = 5% of the floor

Year	Buys	Buy-price range	Cum. invested	Cum. BTC	Value @ today	Multiple

Read it honestly. Three things this shows: the rule rarely fires (whole bull years have zero qualifying weeks, so you sit in cash and deploy little), it assumes you bought the exact weekly low at moments of maximum fear, and it is survivorship-flattered — it measures the one asset that kept following the line. Start in 2010 and the result is a meaningless artifact (BTC was under $1), so the start-year selector defaults to a more realistic window.

03 / THE CATCH

Why this is hindsight, not a strategy

Buying the exact floor looks easy on a finished chart and is brutal in real time: the floor-touches were the moments of maximum fear, when every headline said it was over. The returns here are real, but they reward conviction at the worst-feeling moment, not chart-reading after the fact.

Past returns are not future returns. This uses weekly low prices, so it assumes you bought the exact dip, which nobody does in real time. It is survivorship-flattered: it measures the one asset that kept following the line. The floor is a regularity, not a guarantee, and it has briefly broken before. Nothing here is investment advice.

See how the floor is built on the explainer, or stress-test the maths on Disprove the Math.

Claude Code Prompt (the prompt that builds this page)

Build "Buy the Floor" — a tool that shows the returns from buying Bitcoin whenever it touched the
power-law floor. A draggable line scrubs across the full price history; whenever the price at that
date sat within a settable band of the floor (default 5%, via a "Floor band (±%)" input), it
shows the annualised return (CAGR) from that price to today's live spot. Output one
self-contained page.

── SHARED DESIGN SYSTEM ──
Dark editorial. Fraunces (display) / Hanken Grotesk (body) / JetBrains Mono (mono). Tokens:
--bg:#0f1115 --bg2:#1a1d24 --bg3:#14171d --border:#2a2e37 --border2:#23272f --text:#e6e8eb
--muted:#9aa0ab --dim:#6b7280 --accent:#f7931a --blue:#5b9bff --red:#ff6b6b --green:#4ade80.
Centered .wrap (~860px), faint radial-gradient bg, sticky nav (hamburger on mobile, hide on
scroll-down). Header = mono orange kicker + Fraunces h1 with one italic-orange <em> + muted lede.
Sections with mono .sec-num + Fraunces h2. Stat cards, a red .caveat. Honest voice; not advice.

── MODEL / DATA ──
Genesis 2009-01-03. floor(days) = 10^-16.493 × days^5.688 × 0.398 (−2σ). Real price = full weekly
history from CryptoCompare (cached server-side), as [day, usdPrice]; extend it with today's live
spot so the line reaches today. Live BTC spot fetched server-side (cached ~60s). USD/AUD toggle
(CAGR is currency-independent; only displayed money changes). Interpolate the real price at any day.
A "floor-touch" = |price/floor − 1| ≤ thr, where thr is a settable band (default 0.05 / 5%, from the "Floor band (±%)" input). Recompute touches, green dots, legend and readout whenever it changes.

── CHART (inline SVG) ──
Long-term chart: x = linear time (first history date → today), y = LOG price. Draw year gridlines
(x) and powers-of-ten price gridlines (y, labelled in the display currency). Plot the power-law
floor (orange curve) and the real weekly price (grey line). Mark every floor-touch with a GREEN
dot so the user can see where to drag. A draggable vertical scrubber (line + grip + a dot on the
floor and a dot on the price at the scrub x); turn the scrubber/price-dot GREEN when it's on a
floor-touch, grey otherwise. Drag is horizontal (clientX → day, clamped to the data range);
geometry is fixed so no rebuild on drag (rebuild only on currency/live change).

── READOUT (stat cards + a sentence, recomputed as you drag) ──
years = (today − day)/365.25; spot = live price; CAGR = (spot/price)^(1/years) − 1; multiple = spot/price.
• If on a floor-touch AND years > 0.3: hero card with the CAGR (green), a card with the total
  multiple (e.g. "260×") over N years, and a card with the date + buy price + % from floor. A
  sentence: "On <Mon YYYY>, Bitcoin sat at $X, within 5% of the floor. Held to today's $Z, that's
  a C% CAGR over T years, a M× return."
• If on a touch but too recent (years ≤ 0.3): show the multiple but note CAGR isn't meaningful yet.
• If NOT a touch: show "% above the floor here, not a floor-touch", the date/price, and the floor
  on that date; prompt the user to drag to a green point.
Default the scrubber to the most recent floor-touch so a CAGR shows on load.

Below the readout add a note that the slider is approximate (a browser scales the long compressed
chart to the screen, so it lands within a week or two, not an exact day). Tell the user to sweep
across the green floor zones, where the CAGR stays high throughout, and that the real takeaway is
that accumulating / dollar-cost-averaging anywhere near the floor has historically produced
excellent compound returns.

── COPY ──
Header h1 "What if you'd <em>bought the floor?</em>"; lede: every floor-touch was a gift in
hindsight; drag across history and whenever price was within 5% of the floor, see the annualised
return to today's live price. A second section "Why this is hindsight, not a strategy": floor-
touches were the moments of maximum fear; returns reward conviction at the worst-feeling moment,
not chart-reading after the fact. A caveat: past ≠ future, weekly closes understate wicks,
survivorship-flattered, the floor can break, not advice.

── LIVE / SEO ──
Live spot badge ("live · $… · updated Ns ago", auto-refresh 60s); the CAGR endpoint tracks the
live price. SEO: title "Buy the Floor: Returns from the Power-Law Support"; meta description;
canonical; OG+Twitter; 🟠 favicon; JSON-LD WebApplication (FinanceApplication, free).