A
82.5 / 100
Last researched 20 Jul 2026, 03:22 UTC
Steven Lubka is a highly competent macro-focused analyst who has accurately identified key liquidity-driven turning points for Bitcoin, such as the 2022 Fed-induced bear market and the 2024 breakout. While his directional calls on interest rates and global liquidity are strong, his longer-term targets can sometimes lean into marketing hyperbole, and his corporate role at Nakamoto, Inc. has introduced structural conflicts around public equity dilution.
Calls (7)
11 Jul 2022
bearish
correct
verified
Bitcoin is not a hedge against CPI increases driven by supply-side shocks, but has a direct positive correlation with monetary expansion. When the Fed tightens, Bitcoin goes down.
Bitcoin collapsed to a cycle low of approximately $15,500 in November 2022 as the Fed continued its aggressive rate hikes and quantitative tightening.
15 Jun 2023
bullish
partially correct
reported
target: 100000
Bitcoin would hit $100,000 "real quick" and then progress to $1,000,000 by 2030, driven by rapid institutional onboarding via spot ETFs.
Directionally correct and his ETF thesis was vindicated, but 'real quick' was an overstatement as it took 17 months for Bitcoin to cross $100,000 on December 4, 2024. The $1 million target by 2030 remains pending.
Kitco News Interview: Wealthy investors are allocating more to Bitcoin
6 Sep 2024
neutral
correct
reported
target: 55000-65000
Bitcoin's price will probably continue to range in the $55-65k band for a while longer, possibly touching the high 40s, before running up over the next 12-18 months.
Bitcoin consolidated within the $55,000-$65,000 range through September and October 2024 before breaking out to new highs in November and December.
Forbes: Bitcoin Prices Plunge Below $53,000 As Multiple Factors Fuel Losses
12 Sep 2024
bullish
correct
reported
target: 100000
Bitcoin will hit six figures regardless of who wins the US presidential election, driven by macroeconomic forces and fiscal deficits.
Bitcoin crossed into six figures ($100,000+) on December 4, 2024, following the US election.
CNBC Interview / Crypto.news Report: Bitcoin to hit six figures regardless of who wins US election
19 Sep 2024
bullish
correct
reported
Following the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut, rising liquidity will support Bitcoin prices to move higher towards the end of the year and beyond.
The Fed rate cut kicked off an expansion of global liquidity and Bitcoin rallied through Q4 2024, closing the year around $93,400.
DL News / Bitget News: FED's Latest Move Confuses Everyone
17 Jan 2025
bullish
correct
reported
Friday, January 17 is the last day for traders to position themselves ahead of Trump's inauguration because of the Monday holiday and probability of an announcement.
Bitcoin spiked to a localized peak of $109,140 over the weekend/Monday ahead of the event before experiencing a 'sell-the-news' pullback.
Decrypt: Bitcoin Spikes to 2025 High Price Near $105K Ahead of Trump Inauguration
4 Jun 2026
bearish
correct
reported
Almost all speculative altcoin projects from the ZIRP era are past their peak and will not reclaim their former heights due to higher structural interest rates.
Capital has overwhelmingly concentrated in Bitcoin and utility projects, leaving legacy speculative altcoins down 80-90% against BTC into mid-2026.
Traders Union: Crypto landscape differs from past bear markets, Steven Lubka notes