Mike Novogratz 467.9K followers
@novogratz
A
78.9 / 100
Last researched 20 Jul 2026, 01:37 UTC
Mike Novogratz is a highly visible, media-active 'permabull' in the cryptocurrency space, transitioning from a prestigious Wall Street career to founding Galaxy Digital. While he possesses strong macroeconomic instincts and has successfully called several major psychological milestones and defensive market rotations, his record is heavily marred by overly aggressive targets during bull market peaks and a disastrous promotion of the failed Terra/LUNA ecosystem. Sceptical analysis suggests his short-term range and support assessments are highly valuable, whereas his long-term parabolic price targets are historically prone to severe overestimation.
Calls found
26
Resolved calls
23
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Calls (26)
Bitcoin to $10,000 by Year-End
Bitcoin experienced an unprecedented retail frenzy, breaking past $10,000 in late November 2017 and peaking at nearly $20,000 in mid-December.
Bitcoin to $40,000 by End of 2018; Ether to $500
Ether reached $500 in late 2017 and eventually peaked over $1,400 in January 2018. However, Bitcoin peaked at roughly $19,600 in December 2017 and entered a brutal 'crypto winter' throughout 2018.
Pausing Galaxy Digital Assets Fund plans and predicting drop to $8,000
His decision to pause was vindicated. Bitcoin continued to slide heavily, falling under the $8,000 threshold on February 2, 2018, eventually touching a local low of ~$6,000 on February 6.
Calling a Bottom on Bitcoin at $6,200
Bitcoin held the $6,000 level for another two months, but spectacularly broke down in mid-November 2018, collapsing down to an ultimate cycle bottom of roughly $3,120 in mid-December.
Short-Term Range Bound ($3k to $6k)
Bitcoin consolidated in a tight accumulation band, trading strictly between $3,200 and $4,200 for the next four months before finally breaking out in early April 2019.
Bitcoin Will Never Drop Below $5,000 Again
During the global 'Black Thursday' liquidity panic of March 12-13, 2020, Bitcoin crashed over 50% in a single day, briefly wicking as low as ~$3,850 on major exchanges before quickly recovering.
Bitcoin to End 2020 Closer to $20,000
Bitcoin broke $10,000 in July 2020 and surged past its previous all-time highs to close the year at approximately $29,000.
Hyping Terra (LUNA) and getting a tattoo, implying long-term safety and viability of the algorithmic stablecoin
LUNA peaked at $119 in April 2022, but the ecosystem collapsed spectacularly to $0 in May 2022, wiping out $40 billion. Galaxy Digital later paid $200M to NY regulators to settle civil investigation allegations.
Bitcoin to Hit $100,000 by End of 2021
Bitcoin reached an initial peak of $64,800 in April 2021, corrected heavily, set its cycle high at $69,000 in November 2021, and closed 2021 at approximately $46,000.
Ether (ETH) to Surge 23% to $5,000
Ether corrected shortly after his call, then staged a late-year rally to peak at $4,891 on November 16, 2021, failing to cross the $5,000 line before collapsing.
Bitcoin to Find Bottom at $38,000–$40,000
Bitcoin briefly bounced off $33,000 in early 2022, but macro conditions and industry collapses dragged Bitcoin down to a cycle bottom of ~$15,500 in November 2022.
Bitcoin to Hit $500,000 'Five Years Out' (by 2027)
He was forced to formally abandon this target just nine months later due to the shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Bitcoin to Hold $20,000; Ether to Hold $1,000
Ethereum hit a local low of ~$880 in mid-June 2022 (marginally breaking $1,000) but recovered. Bitcoin consolidated around $20k for months, but broke down to ~$15,500 in November 2022 following the FTX insolvency.
Doubtful Bitcoin Will Surpass $30,000 Soon
Bitcoin peaked at $25,200 in August 2022 and resumed its downward trend, staying well below $30,000 for the remainder of 2022.
Formally Abandons $500,000 Five-Year Target
A realistic macro pivot recognizing that the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle ended the 'easy money' era.
Bitcoin to Return to $30,000 by End of Q1 2023
Bitcoin hit a high of ~$29,100 in late March, falling just short at the quarterly close, but officially crossed $30,000 on April 11, 2023.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approved in 2023
The SEC officially approved the spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024, missing his end-of-year window by just 10 days.
Post-Election Bitcoin to Hit $100,000 by Year-End
Bitcoin immediately rallied following the election, breaking the historic $100,000 milestone in December 2024.
Galaxy Research Forecasts BTC to Cross $150,000 in H1 2025 and Hit $185,000 in Q4 2025; ETH to Trade Above $5,500
Bitcoin peaked at $125,761 in October 2025 and fell to around $60,000 by December 2025. ETH peaked at $3,848 in July 2025, completely missing the $5,500 target.
Ethereum to Outperform Bitcoin in 3-6 Months; BTC to hit $150k
ETH failed to break $4,000 and dramatically underperformed Bitcoin. Bitcoin did not reach $150,000 in 2025.
Rejects $250k Year-End Call; Predicts Range of $100k-$125k
Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $125,761 on October 5, 2025, and corrected. It held close to $100,000 during a flash crash on October 10.
Formally Admits the $150,000 Bitcoin Call Was Wrong
Bitcoin was trading back down to the $60,000 level at the close of 2025, validating his admission of the error.
Crypto 'Age of Speculation' and 100x Era is Over
Too early to verify long-term structural shift, though it aligns with the cooling speculation and institutional real-world asset focus in 2026.
Bitcoin to Recover to $70,000 by July 2026
Bitcoin faced structural headwinds and dropped to $59,000–$60,000, only recovering to ~$64,000 by late July 2026.
Identifies MicroStrategy Risk; Predicts Support Hold at $59k-$60k, with Downside Risk to $45k
Bitcoin successfully tested the $59,000–$60,000 range, held the line, and rebounded back to ~$64,000.
Bitcoin to Trade Between $60,000 and $80,000 for Rest of 2026
Prediction is ongoing for the rest of 2026.
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