Joe Carlasare
@JoeCarlasare
A
78.1 / 100
Last researched 19 Jul 2026, 23:16 UTC
Joe Carlasare is a commercial litigator and Bitcoin commentator who focuses on macroeconomic trends, legal/regulatory developments, and structural market cycles. He has a highly accurate record predicting administrative and regulatory outcomes, but has experienced notable misses when making specific calendar-bound price predictions and criminal legal timeline projections. Overall, he represents a measured, institutional voice that frequently and successfully challenges over-hyped retail narratives.
Calls found
12
Resolved calls
12
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Calls (12)
Predicted that massive civil and regulatory litigation would target the venture capital firms backing Terra LUNA, and that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen would use the meltdown to aggressively advance stablecoin regulations.
Extensive litigation was filed against Terraform Labs and VC backers, and the collapse was widely cited by Yellen and other regulators to advance stablecoin legislation.
Made a 'hard prediction' that Sam Bankman-Fried's criminal fraud case would end in a negotiated plea deal and not go to trial.
SBF pleaded not guilty and proceeded to a high-profile federal trial where he was convicted.
Predicted that a court win for Grayscale would not legally compel the SEC to immediately approve the spot ETF, but would instead require the SEC to re-evaluate the conversion application on non-arbitrary grounds.
The appeals court ruled the SEC's denial arbitrary and capricious and ordered a re-review, which eventually led to the January 2024 mass approvals.
Highlighted that Bitcoin closing below its 200-day moving average historically signaled further declines, pointing to an average subsequent 20% drop.
Bitcoin did not decline an additional 20% to $20.6k; instead, it consolidated briefly around $25k before launching into a major upward breakout.
Predicted that Bitcoin would perform quite well throughout October 2023.
Bitcoin opened October around $27,000 and gained roughly 28%, closing the month near $34,600.
Predicted SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs around Jan 5 or Jan 8, 2024, later refining this on Jan 6 to note that public comment periods extending to Jan 5 made approval before the week of Jan 8 highly unlikely.
The SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday, January 10, 2024, matching his refined timeline of the week of January 8th.
Predicted spot Ethereum ETFs would eventually be approved in 2024, but cautioned that the timeline would take longer than people expected as the SEC navigated precedent.
While consensus expected approvals by May, the actual S-1 approvals and launch did not occur until late July 2024.
Predicted that SEC Commissioners would not formally challenge or veto the delegated authority approval of the spot Ethereum ETF, despite legal speculation that they might.
No SEC Commissioner contested the delegated approval and the ETFs successfully launched.
Bucked the hyper-bullish consensus at the end of 2024, predicting that market weariness indicated a strong need for consolidation and that 2025 would deviate from consensus.
Bitcoin consolidated heavily in Q1 2025, dropping to a local low of $76,370 on April 8, 2025.
Predicted that Bitcoin would finish the year 2025 priced between $130,000 and $140,000.
Bitcoin peaked in October 2025 near $126k and then entered a sharp correction, closing on Dec 31, 2025, at $87,508.83.
Argued that a year-end target of $200,000 for 2025 was highly unlikely, noting that the required daily gains were historically unsustainable.
Bitcoin failed to reach $200,000 and corrected down below $90,000 by year-end.
Called the traditional '4-year cycle' complete nonsense and predicted that the market would frustrate bulls with a poor Q4 2025, with the cycle instead extending into 2026.
Bitcoin experienced a severe Q4 2025 correction and dropped further in early 2026, breaking the traditional cycle peaks pattern.
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