Jameson Lopp
@lopp
A
71.3 / 100
Last researched 20 Jul 2026, 04:50 UTC
Jameson Lopp has a poor track record when attempting to project specific dollar targets for Bitcoin, with his early long-term price models failing to account for cyclical market deleveraging. However, as a technical security specialist, he has demonstrated highly accurate judgment on macro-level infrastructure shifts, blockchain forks, consensus debates, and cryptographic security timelines. Investors should look to him for structural protocol analysis rather than short-term price signals.
Calls found
13
Resolved calls
13
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Calls (13)
Argued that Ethereum's decision to hard fork and rewrite history to reverse the DAO smart contract hack set a highly dangerous precedent, predicting it would lead to long-term centralization and establish a culture where "social consensus" and developer intervention override protocol immutability.
Ethereum has faced persistent structural and philosophical critique regarding centralization, especially following its transition to Proof of Stake where major staking protocols and block builders took dominant control of transaction ordering.
Calculated a seven-year trend-line of Bitcoin's historical average daily value changes (+0.22% to +1.11% depending on the year) and extrapolated that if the trend-line continued, Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of 2020.
Bitcoin ended 2020 at approximately $28,900, missing the extrapolated model target by nearly 90% as the projection failed to anticipate macro-cyclicality.
Stated on behalf of his BitGo engineering team that Bitcoin's price would end the year 2018 in the ballpark of $23,000 per coin.
Rather than continuing upward, Bitcoin collapsed and finished December 2018 at roughly $3,700 to $3,800 due to a severe crypto winter.
Projected that within five years (by January 2023), the long-term adoption of Bitcoin as a global store of value would push its price into the $200,000 to $250,000 range.
Despite reaching a peak of approximately $69,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin collapsed back down during the 2022 deleveraging event and traded around $16,500 by January 2023.
Expressed strong skepticism regarding the long-term viability of stablecoins, predicting they would struggle to maintain functionality and preserve their fiat pegs over time.
He was correct regarding the structural fragility of unstable algorithmic designs like Terra's UST, but incorrect about the broader asset class, as highly regulated asset-backed stablecoins like USDT and USDC grew into a highly durable $150B+ market.
Following China's complete ban on Bitcoin mining in 2021, Lopp predicted that the network hashrate would recover and grow aggressively throughout 2022 due to massive industrial infrastructure investments in North America.
Despite declining market prices for BTC, global network hashrate expanded by over 56%, moving from 175 EH/s to 274 EH/s by January 2023.
Predicted that the deep financial distress and overleveraging of industrial miners during the 2022 bear market would trigger a delayed fallout in 2023, causing mining hashrate growth to slow down significantly as operations went bankrupt.
Although some miners declared bankruptcy, the global hashrate continued to surge aggressively to new all-time highs throughout 2023. Lopp explicitly conceded this prediction was incorrect.
Predicted that investor sentiment would bottom out and the ecosystem would experience a major new wave of adoption in 2023.
Bitcoin rallied over 150% in 2023, and the network experienced a massive wave of transaction fee and on-chain adoption through the launch of the Ordinals protocol.
Expressed strong caution and skepticism regarding quick SEC approval for Spot Ethereum ETFs, predicting that persistent regulatory hesitancy and political friction would delay any approval.
The SEC unexpectedly shifted its stance and approved initial filings in May 2024, leading to the official trading launch of spot Ethereum ETFs in July 2024.
Predicted that fiat currencies will be worth less by the end of 2025.
Sticky global inflation continued to degrade the real purchasing power of the US Dollar and other major fiat currencies throughout 2025.
Predicted that quantum computers would not represent an imminent, near-term threat to Bitcoin's cryptographic integrity, while emphasizing that a complete technical migration would still require 5 to 10 years of methodical protocol engineering.
Elliptic curve cryptography remains entirely secure and no quantum computer capable of threatening modern public-key cryptography has emerged.
Asserted that BIP-110 (a highly controversial Bitcoin soft fork designed to filter out non-monetary data like Ordinals) was reckless and would fail to reach community consensus. He predicted it would become a "nothingburger" and publicly offered a 1 BTC minimum wager to any BIP-110 supporters betting against its activation.
As of July 2026, miner signaling for BIP-110 remains at virtually 0% (significantly below the required activation threshold), and no major proponents have accepted his wager.
Maintained a continuous, decade-long technical stance predicting that Craig Wright's claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto would eventually collapse under forensic and cryptographic scrutiny.
In March 2024, the UK High Court ruled definitively in the COPA v. Wright trial that the evidence was overwhelming that Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto.
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