Bob Loukas 320K followers
@BobLoukas
A
76.0 / 100
Last researched 20 Jul 2026, 06:54 UTC
Bob Loukas is a well-known market cycle theorist recognized for his multi-year Bitcoin cycle models. While he demonstrates exceptional skill at identifying macro accumulation windows and structural cycle bottoms, his precise peak price targets are frequently over-optimistic. Additionally, his track record is marked by occasional premature de-risking and sentiment shifts during periods of high local volatility.
Calls found
15
Resolved calls
14
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Calls (15)
Declared with '98% confidence' that the December 2018 low of ~$3,100 was the absolute bottom of the 4-year cycle. Advised buying the sub-$4,000 range aggressively.
Bitcoin bottomed at $3,122 on December 15, 2018, marking the cycle low and initiating a multi-year bull run.
Stated he was buying dips on Ethereum (then $350-$400) with a peak cycle target of $5,000.
Ethereum reached a cycle peak of $4,891 in November 2021, falling just 2.2% short of his $5,000 target.
Remitano "Top 5 Ethereum Price Predictions"
Predicted that the 2021 bull market peak would top out somewhere between $100,000 and $250,000.
Bitcoin peaked in November 2021 at $69,000, failing to reach the lower bound of the target range.
Reddit r/CryptoCurrency and r/Bitcoin community retrospectives
Predicted a major, multi-year bottom was imminent and would print in November or December 2022 during the FTX collapse.
Bitcoin bottomed at $15,476 on November 21, 2022, marking the generational bottom of that cycle.
The Unhedged Capitalist ("Why the Bob Loukas 4 year crypto cycle is predicting a low")
Formally announced that a new 4-year cycle had officially begun and initiated his model portfolio accumulation phase.
Bitcoin climbed consistently from ~$16,500 in January 2023 to over $126,000 by late 2025.
Shared a quarterly chart indicating Bitcoin would break its 2021 ATH and target approximately $74,000 by 2025.
Bitcoin did break its ATH, but surged past the $74,000 target much faster than expected, eventually peaking at $126,198 in October 2025.
Analyzed SOL/USD and stated that Solana had converted $140 into support and was fueled up for a leg to $250.
Solana consolidated but eventually broke out to reach $263.83 in late November 2024, later peaking at $294.33 in January 2025.
Binance Square / TradingView
Stated Bitcoin was playing out a 'perfect script' and expected a breakout to run past $150,000.
Bitcoin broke out of consolidation to reach $108,268 and eventually peaked at $126,198, failing to hit the $150,000 target.
Predicted that SOL to ATH (above $260) within 14 days wouldn't be a surprise.
Solana broke its all-time high to reach $263.83 on November 22, 2024, missing his 14-day window by only 48 hours.
Bitget News
Sold one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500 and warned of a '33% probability' that Bitcoin had already peaked for the cycle.
Bitcoin did not peak at $79.5k; it consolidated briefly and then rallied to an ultimate peak of $126,198 in October 2025.
NewsBTC / CryptoRank ("33% Chance Bitcoin Already Topped—Brace For $52,000")
Projected a 60-day cycle target of $139,000 (aggressive target of $173,000) for the final phase of the run.
Bitcoin continued higher to peak at $126,198 in October 2025, but did not reach the projected $139,000 target.
KITCO News ("Bitcoin's surprise pump, the 60-day cycle theory...")
Declared that the altcoin cycle was over, failed, and that alts had died, abandoning his bullish stance.
Ethereum went on to reach a massive new ATH of $4,954 on August 24, 2025, proving the cycle was not over.
Reddit r/CryptoCurrency community thread ("Bob Loukas has spoken")
Declared the macro bull run over, but predicted a strong relief rally back to the $100,000-$110,000 range.
A relief rally did occur, but it stalled out much lower at around $83,000-$85,000 in May 2026.
Reddit r/Bitcoin cycle discussions / YouTube archives
Described the weekly chart as horrendous and set a downside price target of $49,000.
He successfully predicted a sharp drop from $83k to $58,076 by late June 2026, though the exact $49k target has not yet been hit.
Made his first buy in 3.5 years (10 BTC at $65,000) but noted his final re-accumulation bids are at $53,000.
The price dropped to ~$58,076 in late June and is currently hovering around $62,500. It is too early to see if his $53k bids will fill by the Q4 2026 cycle low window.
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