Benjamin Cowen
@benjamincowen
B
62.4 / 100
Last researched 20 Jul 2026, 04:19 UTC
Benjamin Cowen employs a quantitative, academic approach focused on macro-economic cycles and relative asset valuation rather than short-term trading. While he has a strong record modeling Bitcoin Dominance and identifying the October 2025 cycle peak, his performance is marred by significant timing errors, persistent bearish bias in early bull markets, and failed attempts to link price bottoms to Fed policy.
Calls found
16
Resolved calls
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Calls (16)
Bitcoin cycles are lengthening, with the 2020/2021 bull market stretching out significantly and the ultimate cycle peak not occurring until late 2022 or even 2023.
Bitcoin topped in November 2021 at ~$69,000, aligning with the traditional 4-year cycle timeline, and Cowen officially abandoned the theory in May 2022.
YouTube / X / Reddit's r/CryptoCurrency
Ethereum (ETH/USD) was destined to drop to its historical logarithmic regression band, establishing a macro price bottom around $800.
Ethereum did not drop below $1,000 during its 2023 consolidation phase, instead moving steadily upward.
Bitcoin's USD price would establish its ultimate cycle bottom on the day of the first Federal Reserve rate cut.
When the rate cut occurred in September 2024, Bitcoin was trading above $60,000, over 300% higher than its actual bottom of ~$15,500 set in November 2022.
ETH/BTC valuation would close 2023 in the 0.03 to 0.04 BTC range, closing below the 2022 wick of 0.049.
Incorrect on timing as ETH/BTC closed 2023 around 0.054. However, the macro thesis was validated when the pair eventually fell to 0.03508 in November 2024.
The S&P 500 would drop to its pre-pandemic high of ~3,390 within a year due to restrictive Federal Reserve monetary tightening.
The S&P 500 defied recession predictions and moved to consecutive new all-time highs throughout late 2023 and 2024.
The Federal Reserve would not pivot to rate cuts unless the S&P 500 experienced a significant, painful correction or sell-off first.
The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 bps in September 2024 while the S&P 500 was trading near record highs, without a preceding crash.
Ethereum's market dominance (ETH.D) would fall all the way down to 9% by October 2024.
In October 2024, Ethereum dominance hovered around 13.3%, failing to hit the targeted level.
Cardano (ADA) would enter a severe depression phase relative to Bitcoin, forecasting the ADA/BTC pair would collapse to 400 satoshis (0.00000400 BTC).
The ADA/BTC pair entered a prolonged decline and capitulated into the 400-480 satoshi range by late 2024.
X/Twitter (@intocryptoverse) / AMBCrypto
Bitcoin would face stiff resistance and stall below $35,000, trading sideways for the rest of 2023.
Bitcoin broke out in October 2023, passing $35,000 and reaching ~$42,000 by December 2023.
TradingView interview (March 2026)
Solana would struggle and the SOL/BTC pair would likely hold or establish a persistent bottom below the 0.00055 BTC level.
Solana surged over 300%, blowing past 0.00055 BTC in late 2023 and early 2024.
TOTAL3 would experience its ultimate cycle capitulation bottom in either Q4 2023 or Q1 2024.
TOTAL3 bottomed earlier in Q3 2023 and went on a major upward trajectory in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) would spike to 59%, pull back, and execute a final slow grind to 60% before the end of 2024.
BTC.D followed this exact trajectory, hitting 60% in late 2024 and continuing upward.
The Daily Hodl
Bitcoin would reach its major cycle peak in the fourth quarter of 2025, followed by a year-long bear market in 2026.
Bitcoin topped at ~$126,000 in October 2025 and entered a severe downtrend throughout 2026, dropping to ~$65,300 by mid-July 2026.
CoinEdition / CryptoRank / YouTube
After a brief bounce to ~$70k, Bitcoin would move back down to revisit its February 2026 lows (~$60,074).
Bitcoin broke below the February lows on June 6, 2026, sweeping down toward $57,000.
The ultimate Bitcoin cycle bottom will form in Q4 2026, estimating a floor near $44,000 through time rather than rapid price capitulation.
As of the report date of July 20, 2026, Q4 2026 has not yet occurred.
Into The Cryptoverse / BeInCrypto report
The S&P 500 would enter a seasonal correction phase starting in August or September 2026.
As of the report date of mid-July 2026, August/September 2026 has not yet occurred.
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