Arthur Hayes
@CryptoHayes
B
65.1 / 100
Last researched 20 Jul 2026, 04:11 UTC
Arthur Hayes is a prominent crypto commentator and co-founder of BitMEX who uses a macro-liquidity framework based on central bank balance sheets and fiat debasement. While his long-term macroeconomic theses contain strong fundamental logic, his short-term public price targets are highly erratic and inconsistent. He faces frequent skepticism and criticism for promoting low-to-mid-cap altcoins right before his fund, Maelstrom, liquidates those exact positions.
Calls found
17
Resolved calls
15
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Calls (17)
Predicted BTC would hit $50,000 by the end of 2018, though warning it would likely find a capitulation bottom in the $3,000 to $5,000 range first.
He nailed the exact macro bottom range ($3,122) for the 2018 bear cycle, but his $50,000 year-end bull target was a massive failure, off by over 90% as BTC ended the year under $4,000.
Predicted in a BitMEX blog essay titled 'Bottomless' that Bitcoin would not find a true market bottom until it underwent a clean retest of the $28,500 support level.
His thesis that the market had not bottomed and that a retest of $28,500 was mandatory proved highly accurate, as Bitcoin broke down past that level and ultimately bottomed near $15,500.
Tweeted: 'Fuck yo couch ... $SOL = $100', predicting the token would surge past $100 by the end of the weekend.
The ultra-short-term 'this weekend' timeline failed, but SOL maintained powerful upward momentum and crossed the $100 threshold within approximately two weeks on December 22-24, 2023.
Claimed on X that he closed his Solana positions to pivot to Ethereum, predicting ETH would eclipse its previous peak and reach $5,000.
While ETH eventually hit a cycle peak near his $5,000 target in late 2025, exiting SOL for ETH in late 2023 was a poorly timed trade, as Solana vastly outperformed Ethereum over the subsequent 12 months.
Announced he dumped trading positions in SOL and BONK at a loss and purchased Bitcoin put options, predicting a deeper correction to the $30,000–$35,000 range.
Bitcoin only dipped briefly to around $38,500 before reversing into a parabolic rally to new all-time highs above $73,000 by March 2024.
Predicted Solana would climb above $250, provided Bitcoin and Ethereum successfully broke and held above $70,000 and $4,000 respectively.
Solana underwent a massive run, peaking at $237.74 in November 2024, but it failed to break the $250 level, and Ethereum struggled to maintain any footing above $4,000.
Posted on X: 'BTC is heavy, I'm gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short.'
Bitcoin fell to a brief low of approximately $52,546 over that weekend, failing to break the $50,000 support. He closed his short on September 8 for a minor 3% profit.
Predicted in a blog post titled 'The Ugly' that Bitcoin would face a correction down to the $70,000–$75,000 level before finding support and embarking on its next run-up.
In the spring of 2025, Bitcoin indeed pulled back from its early-year highs and consolidated in the exact $70,000–$75,000 range predicted.
Set a bold, year-end target of $250,000 for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin peaked at an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025 and plunged 30% from its peak by November/December 2025, ending the year far below his target.
Tweeted that he bet BTC would break $110,000 before it retested its prior support level at $76,500.
Bitcoin did not hit $110k in that window and instead slid backward, retesting $76,500 on April 7, 2025.
Claimed Ethereum was heavily underappreciated and predicted it would run to $10,000 or even $15,000 in the next leg of the bull run.
Ethereum reached a peak of around $5,000 in August 2025 and has since entered a deep, multi-month bear trend, trading down to ~$1,870 as of July 2026.
Set a $150 target for HYPE by August 2026 and wagered a $100,000 bet that HYPE would outperform SOL by the end of 2026.
Only days after heavily promoting the asset, Hayes' fund completely liquidated its HYPE holdings on June 6, 2026, abandoning his personal conviction.
Heavily shilled ZEC, NEAR, and WLD, predicting ZEC would hit $2,500–$3,000 and NEAR had '20x potential'.
Hayes completely dumped his entire ZEC, WLD, and NEAR positions on June 6, 2026, following a vulnerability in Zcash, causing a severe crash in the assets.
Publicly promoted CARDS on X, predicting it would 'pamp' and assigning it a $4.00 price target.
Maelstrom transferred $1.92 million worth of CARDS to market maker Flowdesk the next day to sell, and the token crashed 23% to $0.23 within days.
Stated in an interview that he expects Bitcoin's ultimate bottom for this correction to sit around $40,000 within six months.
The 6-month window is active until December 2026; Bitcoin is currently trading at ~$64,000.
Bought 6.16 million SYN tokens OTC and publicly endorsed Hypercall (options DEX built by the Synapse team) as a legitimate challenger to Deribit.
The asset pumped briefly by 40% but then completely imploded, sinking 55% from its peak by mid-July 2026, leaving the trade in heavy losses.
Reasserted his long-term targets of $1M BTC and $100k-$200k ETH by the end of the next cycle.
These are highly speculative, multi-year targets.
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